HIGH LEVEL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE UPPER HUTT COMMUNITY

More detailed information will be added but as a “starter for 10”:

The climate change process that we (humans) have set running will impact communities world-wide and Upper Hutt will be no different. The main effects that we and our families, will have to deal with are:

1. It will keep on getting hotter - and there will be more hot days and fewer cold nights.

Upper Hutt temperature reached 25.4C on December 21st last year.

Very hot summers and warm winters may appear to be a good thing but:

  • People can start to experience heat stress at temperatures above 27C. Heat stress is especially dangerous to the elderly and the chronically ill.

  • For those that can afford them, there will be an increased demand for air conditioners in summer – many of us are already under pressure from high electricity bills – and the pressure on the electricity supply system will increase as likely will the cost of the power bills that householders and businesses will have to pay.

  • The increasing temperature will mean that a range of diseases that already exist in other countries (eg Australia and the Pacific), but which cannot currently survive and breed in New Zealand’s colder temperatures will instead be able to thrive. As well as placing our health at increased risk, our native plants and animals will be at increased risk from both introduced diseases and predator species but also from the loss of their habitats , a problem  especially for our taonga - and increasingly threatened - species that have evolved over many thousands of years specifically to fit their temperate and isolated (island) environment.

  • Fewer frosts in winter will kill off less of the pests and diseases that affect our vegetable and other food crops and so contribute to significant and on-going food-price increases.

  • There will be more pressure on our already limited and under-pressure water sources.

2.       Changes to rainfall patterns – the number of extreme rain events (such as storms) will increase, and changes to seasonal patterns will result in longer periods without rain (i.e. droughts).

What are currently classed as rare, very severe storms will happen more often. A recent University of Auckland report estimates that there will be seventeen “1 in a 100-year extreme weather events” in New Zealand before the end of 2031[1]

  • Our stormwater system to take rainwater away during storms may become overloaded, causing flooding, (a problem compounded by the increased amount of infill housing and the loss of bare ground/grass cover to help absorb rainwater.

  • Hilly areas will be more prone to landslips and rockfalls damaging property and infrastructure including roads and bridges, power supply and “3 Waters” pipes and pumps.

  • The wonderful Hutt River flows alongside Upper Hutt and we must have an adequate level of flood protection- that addresses climate change impacts - designed and built-in to the river management system to keep our community safe.

3.       Sea Level Rise – and the indirect effects of this on Upper Hutt

Both Wellington City and Lower Hutt have significant areas that will be affected by sea level rise in future, and this will affect the functioning of these cities and their communities. This issue will not directly affect Upper Hutt, but:

  • Many people who live in Upper Hutt commute to work in Lower Hutt or Wellington and these areas are also important recreationally and socially for our Upper Hutt community.

  • Anything that affects the functioning of these cities will therefore have a  significant impact on us, whether it is a problem for commuters (our workplaces moving away from climate change affected areas to elsewhere in the Wellington area or to places away from the region), or the loss recreational/social opportunities.

4.       Economic and other impacts – it is possible that Upper Hutt may benefit, especially if people and/or businesses relocate to Upper Hutt as a result of climate change pressures elsewhere but this may be offset by job losses or other adverse impacts:

With insurance companies moving to risk-based pricing and the models being used for this purpose becoming increasingly more sophisticated and therefore of high value to these companies, this may see some Upper Hutt property owners paying significantly more for (e.g.) flood insurance in future - and where insurance companies lead, banks and other lending institutions are sure to follow.

In addition, we will see an increase in social pressures in the community, as it is our most vulnerable groups that are generally both the most affected by large external impacts, (whether from an earthquake or climate change) and they are also the least resourced to deal with the problem.

If we continue, as a community and as a country, at our current level of inaction to address climate change and its impacts, the cost of paying for the necessary changes to the way we live, work and play will fall to our children and grand-children.

That they will have to shoulder this burden as well as caring for their families and despite there being less of them to pay for these large and increased economic liabilities, should be a worry to all Upper Hutt (and New Zealand) parents.

[1] Team #0122 - NZESC 2021 University of Auckland,2021” How many 1 in 100-year extreme weather events can NZ expect to experience over the course of the next decade?”  https://www.auckland.ac.nz/assets/engineering/Docs/0122.pdf