Social justice issues and New Zealand’s contribution to global warming

Background

One of the significant challenges to the global community when it comes to addressing the current and future impacts from climate change (both for mitigation and adaptation) is that a relatively small number of countries have been, and are, responsible for the bulk of the increased GHG emissions that - by causing the Earth’s average surface temperature to increase - are the root cause of the problem that the world now faces.

Humans and our industrial and other activities have been adding GHG to the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution - for at least 250 years. We have known about the solution to the problem we have created for some decades now but we have failed (and are still failing) to act with the urgency the situation requires of us if we are to avoid major challenges to our societies and, for many people, the sustainable way of life that has served them for generations.

Unfortunately, many of the impacts of climate change - including but not restricted to, increasing frequency of severe weather events, changing rainfall patterns , the loss of glaciers, sea level rise and increasing heath challenges from higher temperatures - will not be visited on everyone equally but will disproportionately fall on many less “developed” and less wealthy (and so less resilient and more vulnerable) parts of the world including in our backyard; the Pacific.

Many of these countries have, individually and collectively, contributed very little to the climate change problem, have benefited much less from the manifold material advantages and increased standard of living that industrialisation has delivered over the last two hundred years or so. They now face the prospect of also being the most impacted by climate change, to the extent that many face the likelihood that sea level rise and/or temperature increases and other problems will render their homes and, in some instances, large parts of their countries, uninhabitable.

It is unsurprising then, that the large number of people who will be affected in this way are raising the issue of social justice. They are requesting that the countries that have caused the problem provide them with the financial assistance and the other measures they need to adapt to an increasingly fraught situation that is not of their making.

In 2009 developed countries committed to providing USD 100 billion per year in climate finance (money to help developing countries build clean energy systems, reduce emissions, and cope with the overall impacts of climate change) to developing countries by 2020, but countries have fallen short of the target since.

More recently a Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (that the US has just withdrawn from) was agreed to at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28 at Dubai) meeting in 2023. This fund would see developed, countries to provide financial support for some of the irreversible economic and noneconomic losses caused by climate change including from sea level rise, desertification, drought and floods. As of January this year the Guardian reported that 27 countries have pledged a total of USD 741 million , a figure that is ~ 0.2% of the irreversible losses that developing countries are facing from from lobal heating each year. [New Zealand’s contribution to this fund is NZD 20 million. This money is part of New Zealand’s NZD 1.3 billion climate finance commitment for 2022-2025. More than half of this funding is being delivered in the Pacific, and more than half is supporting climate change adaptation initiatives.]

The contribution to global warming by New Zealand and other industrialized countries

As noted above, the world, collectively, has been pumping GHG into the atmosphere for more than two hundred years and, lately, at an increasing rate.

Global CO2 emissions to date

Scientists [from Global Carbon Budget, with major processing by Our World in Data (OWID) ] have been able to estimate the cumulative CO2 emissions since 1750 on a per country basis and present this graphically. It is instructive to consider this information in the light of the continuing dialogue around social justice that is occurring and will be an an increasing focus over coming years.

A couple of caveats are worth noting. This, production-based emission data presented is for CO2 only and relates to fossil fuels and industry and does not include emissions from land use change. Fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of total CO2 emissions, and CO2 emissions are ~70% of total GHG emissions (as CO2e). The figures discussed in this section should therefore be considered as proxy values for a country’s historical total GHG emissions.

Key points are:

  • Total global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry, from 1750 to 2023, are 1,810 GT (1 Gigatonnes = 1 billion tonnes) of CO2 [As as aside the Global Carbon Budget organisation has estimated has calculated the remaining global carbon budget - the maximum CO₂ we can emit globally while staying within specified (1.5°C and 2°C) temperature limits. As of January 2025, this is estimated to allow for emissions of 235 to 1110 billion tons of CO₂, respectively. At current emission levels, we have roughly 6 and 27 years respectively remaining for these thresholds.]

  • While there is no established convention for classifying “developed” and “developing” countries in the UN system, several frameworks help provide an estimate of the cumulative contribution to global warming by the economically “better off"“ countries.

  • The first is the 42 countries classified as high income (per capita GDP > USD 20000) industrial economies by the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation [UNIDO] and including New Zealand. In 2023 these countries had emitted ~1,090 billion tonnes of CO2 - or ~60% of the cumulative total. Emissions from China and India account for a further 19%.

  • The second is the 37 countries classified as “developed economies” by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs in their “World Economic Situation and Prospects” report. Using this classification, the OWID information sees these countries as cumulatively contributing 961 million tonnes of CO2 - or 53% of the total.

  • The third is the “G20” group that comprise the world’s largest economies. While not considering historical emissions, the current GHG emissions of the G20 countries (half the members of this group are in the “developed economies” referred to above) total ~77% of global GHG.

  • In contrast, the OWID data has emissions from “low income” countries as being 10.5 billion tonnes of CO2, or ~0.6% of the total. [I have not yet found the definition of “low income” in the information about the data set, but the UNIDO data also has a “high income “ countries number - 1130 tonnes (62%) - which is in reasonable agreement with my calculated emissions for high income, industrial economies.]

  • Closer to home, once the emissions from Australia (19.66 billion tonnes CO2, ~1.1%)and New Zealand (1.95 billion tonnes CO2 ~ 0.1%) are removed, the “residual” Oceania emissions are 0.56 billion tonnes CO2 or ~0.03% of the historical global total.

  • In any event, it is clear that, of the ~200 countries in the world, at least 50% of the cumulative CO2 emissions arising from industry and fossil fuel combustion are attributable to 20% of the countries in the world (and which comprise less than 15% of the 2024 global population).

    New Zealand’s emissions in a global and regional context

    New Zealand’s per capita production-based gross emissions for all GHG, as CO2-e, was 15.1 tonnes in 2021, high by international standards - the average for developed countries is 8.8 t CO2-e.

    New Zealand contributes around 0.17% of global emissions, which is approaching three times its share of the world's population.

    The independent Carbon Action Tracker views New Zealand’s 2030 [Paris Agreement] “NDC” target as being “Insufficient” as a “fair share” measure. Given New Zealand’s remarkable lack of ambition in setting the subsequent (2035) NDC goal it is difficult to see that the situation would have improved since the CAT assessment was made in 2023.

    On a regional level, Oceania (New Zealand, Australasia, Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia) has a population of ~ 46.5 million. New Zealand comprises ~ 11% of this and proportionally has cumulatively produced ~9% of the regional CO2 emissions. On this measure, we are reasonably placed but the regional emissions picture is skewed by Australia’s cumulative 20 billion tonnes of CO2.

    New Zealand’s “share” of the cumulative world CO2 emissions (above) is ~0.1%. This is however a multiple of emissions share of Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) of 0.03%. In addition, many of the countries in the Oceania region might be expected (based on a GDP per capita figure of ~USD 4,000 per year compared to New Zealand’s equivalent figure of >USD 40,000) to be much less resilient and more vulnerable to climate change impacts and therefor in need of significant assistance on this matter.