Watching the Tide Come In: Why NZ Needs Real Climate Leadership Now
New Zealand Climate Crisis: Blog 6
[1460 words - a 7 minute read]
In the old tale of King Canute, the ruler sets his throne on the beach and commands the tide to stop. When the waves soak his feet, he declares: “Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings.”
The story is not one of arrogance, but of realism. Canute knew that natural forces don’t yield to political posturing. Today, New Zealand’s leaders would do well to remember that.
Despite mounting scientific evidence, rising global emissions, and increasingly severe climate impacts becoming locked in , the current Government seems determined to govern as if the unfolding climate crisis can be held back by the forces of political ideology and a “getting the country back on track” mantra.
We’ve Very Likely Already Missed the 1.5°C Boat
The Paris Agreement was clear: hold global warming “well below 2°C,” with an aspirational limit of 1.5°C to avoid the worst climate impacts. But the data tells a different story.
To stay below 1.5°C, gross emissions must fall 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 (from the 2019 level of 53 billion tonnes CO₂-e ).
In reality, global emissions continue to increase, to ~55 billion tonnes CO₂-e in 2023
A continuation of current global policies will result in a catastrophic temperature increase of up to 3.1C.
Any failure to urgently deliver the necessary emission reductions will see the 1.5C target exceeded without managing the ‘overshoot’ (see below).
Climate change is measured on a 20 year average temperatures but to wait until the world has reached 1.5C for 20 years to confirm the fact would be idiotic.
The World Meteorological Organisation now projects that the year average (2015–2034) temperature will be ~1.44°C above pre-industrial levels. This suggests we may soon at least temporarily exceed 1.5°C, if we haven’t already.
The fact that the rate of warming continues to increase should be viewed as an increasingly desperate signal, from the planet, to urgently reduce our emissions.
Worse still, new evidence suggests 1.0°C may be the true safe limit to prevent long-term melting of Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets. If true, our current trajectory is even more dangerous than previously understood.
‘Overshooting’ 1.5C
This term refers to a situation where a targeted temperature increase (e.g. 1.5C) is exceeded, before being subsequently being brought down to the target value by reducing emissions and/or removing carbon from the atmosphere.
With every fraction of a degree that the average global temperature is increased, the impacts on our communities are magnified. Overshoot scenarios – by generating higher temperatures for some period – can result in more severe climate impacts, some of which, such as sea level rise, may persist for centuries or longer. Such an option must therefore be considered very much a second choice and not divert us from our emission reduction efforts aimed at holding the temperature increase to a maximum of 1.5C.
While the Paris Agreement acknowledges that a temporary overshoot might occur, it emphasizes that peak warming in the 21st century should be held "well below" 2°C.
New Zealand’s Emissions: Small Country, Big Footprint
New Zealand contributes just 0.17% of global emissions but - and not something to be proud of - we are a high emitter in per capita terms
Gross emissions: ~15 tonnes CO₂-e per person per year.
Our net emissions, after accounting for carbon removal from planting trees that sequester (i.e store) CO2 drop to ~11 tonnes per person but still a high level.
Global average gross emissions: ~5 tonnes CO₂-e per person.
If every nation (8 billion people) emitted like us, global warming would reach well above 4C - a catastrophic level.
Overall, according to the Climate Action Tracker, our:
Domestic policies are rated “Highly Insufficient”—consistent with over 3°C of warming.
International targets are only “Almost Sufficient”, requiring major improvements to align with the 1.5°C pathway (assuming we deliver on our NDC commitments).
So Where Is the Leadership?
The NZ Government insists its actions are directed at getting New Zealand "back on track." But what track are we on? One prone to washout by slips and floods from increasing climate change impacts?
In its recent 2025 Budget, the Government reduced some climate related spending, halved Pacific climate aid, and worse, floated support for new oil and gas exploration—all while offering next to nothing to help communities become more resilient to the increasing climate change driven impacts that are coming their way.
While almost all Ministers trumpeted “wins” from the budget, the Climate Change Minister was silent—perhaps a telling sign.
Strong leadership in business or government means reading the environment, assessing risk, making strategic calls, and, yes, sometimes spending large sums of money to avert catastrophe and to save money in the long-term. Climate change demands precisely that mindset.
Yet, so far, we see a government that is does not seem willing or able to adjust its ideologically-driven position despite increasing evidence that its current and planned actions are inadequate.
Three Urgent Questions the Government Must Answer
In a post-budget interview, the Prime Minister claimed to be “very comfortable” that New Zealand would meet its climate obligations. In the light of the challenges we face from climate change, including those raised below, it would be useful to understand what exactly the Prime Minister meant by “obligations” and how narrowly, or otherwise, this is defined – does it, for instance, include the NDC(1) pledge made (see below)?
The three major unresolved issues the public deserves answers on:
1. How will the NDC(1) ~84 million tonne emissions gap for 2030 be closed?
It is a fact that New Zealand is well off track to meet its NDC(1) Paris Agreement pledge by internal emissions reductions alone. Without additional, drastic, domestic action or multi-billion-dollar purchases of overseas carbon credits, we risk failure—and diplomatic and, potentially, trade fallout. This problem has been known about for some years but the government continues to avoid telling New Zealanders if and how it will sort the matter out – preferring to metaphorically “dance on the head of a pin” around this commitment (e.g) even whether, technically, it is a liability or not. New Zealand deserves better.
2. What happens if an expected domestic carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative fails to deliver?
It has been reported that the only domestic CCS project expected to contribute to emission reductions in the 2027–30 period may no longer be viable. If the 1 million tonnes of expected reductions from this initiative aren’t forthcoming, what’s the back-up plan?
3. Is 1.5°C without some ‘overshoot’ still a valid goal—or just political theatre?
It is increasingly likely that 1.5°C is effectively out of reach without overshoot and the additional impacts from this.
Has the Government received advice about the viability (or otherwise) of clinging to the 1.5C target without any overshoot? If so, what is that advice and are any urgent, additional emission reductions needed?
If some level of overshoot is now likely to occur, what are scenarios are under consideration and what are the expected likely additional impacts arising from the ‘overshoot’ process?
Why New Zealand Still Has a Responsibility
Yes, we’re a small emitter. But we are also:
A developed country with an historic emissions legacy.
Historically, a strong voice for fair trade, international rules, and human rights.
A neighbour to Pacific nations on the front line of the climate crisis.
We can’t plead insignificance while benefiting from the global problem we helped create. Nor can we credibly advocate for fair trade or influence while failing to do our share of the work to address the climate crisis which the world now faces.
If Not Now, When?
Climate change is not a future problem. It’s a now problem. Fires, floods, heatwaves, droughts, melting glaciers and rising oceans are already impacting lives and communities around the world and the impacts will get much worse unless we act with resolve and urgency.
New Zealanders deserve transparency. They deserve climate policies and actions based on reality and informed by science, not confined by ideology and limited to wishful thinking. And they deserve a government willing to lead — not one perched at the water’s edge, hoping that reciting the “Back on Track” mantra is enough to turn the climate change tide back.
If we continue on our current path, history won’t remember this Government for getting us “back on track.” It will remember it for ignoring the signs and the science of climate change, and for leaving our children and grand-children to pick up the pieces, and pay for, the cost of our inaction.
However, if you happen to be in Wellington and walking along Oriental Bay and you see some well dressed people seated at the water’s edge don’t look away.
Wave. Say “Hello” and, if you have time, go down, take your shoes and socks off and add your voice to the “Back on Track” mantra.
You never know. It might make a difference.
